Demand forecasting
How many units you'll sell, by product, presentation and territory, over the coming months. With the drivers of demand in plain sight: seasonality, tenders, competitors and reimbursement changes.
- Next 12 months590k
- Against the previous 12+4.7%
- 90% range551-629
- Mean error, last 6 months6.8%
Units per month · thousand units Hover over the chart
- Actual
- Forecast
- 50% range
- 90% range
Scenarios
From the last 12 months to the next 12k
- Last 12 months564
- Trend and seasonality+26
- Next 12 months590
By region
| Region | Last 24 months | Next 3 months | Stock cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andalusia | 27.6k | 7.1 wks | |
| Catalonia | 24.7k | 4.3 wks | |
| Madrid | 21.8k | 5.9 wks | |
| Valencia | 16.0k | 4.8 wks | |
| Galicia | 10.2k | 4.2 wks | |
| Basque Country | 7.3k | 6.4 wks |
What happened, what's forecast and what's uncertain, by product and by region. Switch on a scenario and watch the forecast, the waterfall and stock cover move.Example with fictional data.
The problem
The forecast usually comes from a spreadsheet: last year plus a percentage. Sales wants it high, operations wants it reliable and nobody really knows where it comes from.
Getting it wrong costs twice: in stock-outs that leave patients without treatment and in product that expires in the warehouse.
What's left running
- Sales and market history by product, presentation and territory.
- The drivers of demand: seasonality, awarded tenders, generics or biosimilars entering and reimbursement changes.
- A monthly forecast with its range: expected, low and high.
- Every month, forecast against actual, and why it drifted.
- Scenarios: what happens if a competitor enters or a large tender is won.
What it moves
Forecast error, stock-outs and product that expires. We set the number that matters with you, in writing, before we start.
Tell us how you do it today. Before we start you have in writing what we'd do, which number it will move and what it costs.
Contact meFrequently asked questions
Does it work for a launch, with no history?
Yes, with a different method: analogue products, epidemiology and written access assumptions. The range is wider, and we say so.
Does it replace operations planning?
It feeds it. What gets made and when is still your team's decision.
How often is it updated?
Whenever new data arrives, usually monthly, without anyone having to rebuild the spreadsheet.